The correct algorithm for the student turnover rate (the calculation formula for the student turnover rate)

Recently, Dongguan Hui Education's WeChat public account released the 2021 middle school entrance examination and high school admissions policy for the middle school entrance examination and high school entrance examination in early 2021.

What is the number of applicants for this year's high school entrance examination? Can you guess a number? Is it still difficult to go to Pu Gao this year?

Teacher Yang is not a "god operator”, and he cannot make an accurate prediction of the difficulty of being admitted to Pu Gao this year, but he can try to analyze it from the data currently available for your reference. Based on the trends of previous years, Teacher Yang boldly speculated：

The batch of secondary school candidates in 2021 were admitted in 2018. According to the "2018 Dongguan National Economic and Social Development Statistics Bulletin", the number of students enrolled in the middle school at the beginning of 2018 (the number of first-year students)9.59 million, Taking into account factors such as population migration, this group of students will definitely lose a part in the process of further studies.

Based on the turnover rate = (number of admissions three years ago－number of graduates in the current year)÷ number of admissions three years ago, calculate the turnover rate of the same batch of students in the past 6 years.

Trend chart of student turnover rate in the same batch from 2015 to 2020

It is not difficult to find from the above trend chart，The highest student turnover rate went to 21%, andYear by year decline, Indicating the turnover rate of this batch of graduates this yearBelow 14.57%。

Even if the turnover rate is 14.57%, the number of graduates this year is probably

9.59-（9.59×14.57%）≈8.2 Ten thousand

Trend chart of the proportion of examiners from 2015 to 2020

As can be seen from the picture above, from 2015 to 2018Proportion of applicantsin70% floating up and down, Starting from 2019 there areUpward trend。

It is expected that the proportion of applicants will also rise this year, even if it is calculated as 77%.，The number of applicants this year is 82,000✖77%≈63,000。

So what is the general admission rate this year?

The above data comes from the official website

The above data comes from the official website

From the data in the table above, we can make the following inferences：

(1) Combined with the analysis of the number of applicants for the secondary school entrance examination in Dongguan in the past three years, it can be concluded that：

In 2020, the number of applicants in Dongguan City is 58,057, and the general high school plans to enroll 35,322 people. Among them, public schools provide 19,900 degrees and private general high schools provide 15,422 degrees. Then the admission rate of general high schools in 2020 will reach 60.%；

In 2019, the number of applicants in Dongguan City was 52,000, and the general high school planned to enroll 28,420 people, of which 18,522 degrees were offered by public schools and 9,898 degrees were offered by private general high schools. The admission rate of general high schools in 2019 was about 55%；

In 2018, the number of applicants in Dongguan City was 43,135, and the general high school planned to enroll 27,176 people. Among them, public schools provided 17,160 degrees and private general high schools provided 10,016 degrees. Then the general high school admission rate in 2018 reached 63%, and 2018 was the year with the highest general high school admission rate in the past three years.

Added in 20205 private general high schools, Respectively, Fengtai Experimental Foreign Language Senior High School, Dongguan School Affiliated to South China Normal University, Hyde Bilingual School, Beichen Senior High School, and Middle School affiliated to Huazhong Normal University, the five schools provide a total of2900 degrees。

Due to the high importance attached by the Municipal Party Committee and the municipal government and the unremitting efforts of the Municipal Bureau of Education, the general high school degree will be greatly expanded this year.

At present, the plan to add new high school degrees has been put in place. It is expected that no less than 6,000 new general high school degrees will be added this year. At the same time, Dongguan has a high admission rate this year.Not less than 60%。

If the admission rate of the General High School is calculated at 60%, it means that 37,800 people will be able to go to the general High School this year, but it also means that there may be 25,000 candidates who cannot go to the general high school and have to go to vocational schools.

（2）According to the law of data changes, although the education department insists on digging for potential, this year's public general high school degrees have increased compared to last year, but due to the increase in candidates for household registration year by year, it is expected that the number of candidates for household registration will increase year by year.The admission rate of registered students in public ordinary high schools this year is basically the same as last year.。

Which means，It's still difficult to get admitted to a public ordinary high school this year., When you fill in your volunteer application, you can choose a private school with an expansion plan according to your level to increase your chances of being admitted.

（3）Due to the adjustment of the household registration policy, the number of candidates for household registration has increased year by year. The degrees allocated by the city's public ordinary high schools to children who have moved with them have remained unchanged for the past three years, while at the same time, non-household registration candidates have also increased year by year, resulting inThe difficulty of enrolling children in public ordinary high schools has also increased year by year.。

The above is a prediction of the fundamentals of the entire high school entrance examination situation. In general, judging from the law of data changes in previous years,，It is expected that the number of applicants for the high school entrance examination this year will be 63,000, and the admission rate of the general high school this year will not be less than 60%., Parents don't have to be too anxious and calm down. In addition, I wish all candidates for the high school entrance examination can be admitted to the ideal high school.